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    OR CREATE A PLATFORM TO BUILD BESPOKE PRODUCTS

    来源:www.dfsbp.com    发布于:2019-4-21 9:10:32    点击量:

    2019/04/22 08/24/03  【丹佛斯变频器 www.dfsbp.com】如果你知道明天彩票的中奖号码,你可以购买彩票,选择中奖号码,然后赢得所有奖金。并且,该业务看起来非常像传统的SAAS公司,投资者可以将其轻松地扩展到已知业务上。你不再需要等待华尔街日报的消息,看看宝洁公司在纽约证券交易所的表现如何就行了;就像交易者一样,我们都可以实时看到价格。

      THAT’S THE STRUCTURE I THOUGHT MY COMPANY, DESCARTES LABS, WOULD BE AD变频器维修OPTING WHEN WE RELEASED OUR CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST IN AUGUST OF 2015, AHEAD OF THE USDA’S FORECAST. WE SINGLEHANDEDLY MOVED THE MARKET 3%, AND WE THOUGHT WE WERE HOT SHIT.

      这就是我的公司——DESCARTES LABS——在2015年8月(在美国农业部发布他们的预测之前)发布玉米产量预测时所采用的方式。

      A DATA SUBSCRIPTION PRODUCT SEEMS LIKE A REALLY LOGICAL WAY TO BUILD OUT AN AI BUSINESS: WRITE A MODEL ONCE, AND SELL IT MANY TIMES. THE BUSINESS THEN LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A TRADITIONAL SAAS COMPANY, MAKING IT EASY FOR INVESTORS TO MAP ONTO KNOWN BUSINESSES.

      以数据订阅的形式构建AI业务似乎是一种非常合理的方式:编写一次模型,然后多次销售。你不需要像安装ORACLE FINANCE之后,对组织进行更改以匹配ORACLE的软件;你可以定制自己的ORACLE FINANCE,以便它支持并数字化企业的内部流程。然后我们将为其他的主要商品建立预测服务,我们将拥有一家新型的信息公司。我们意识到,我们在构建玉米产量预测模型时所使用的数据处理方式、建模工具和基于云的超级计算机都可以用来为客户定制模型。我们认为,玉米价值链中的每个人都想要订阅我们的产品。我们凭借一己之力地改变了市场价格的3%,我们觉得我们做的还挺不错。因此也就没有了优势,没有了相对优势也就没有理由继续购买我们的产品。这意味着比竞争对手更早获取数据的优势只是暂时的。毕竟,每个人都需要订阅市场改变的信息,无论你认为它是正确的还是错误的。

      IT DIDN’T WORK OUT THAT EASILY FOR US. THE PROBLEM WITH TRYING TO CREATE UNIVERSAL DATA PRODUCTS IN A COMPETITIVE MARKET IS THAT EVERYONE HAS ACCESS TO THE SAME INFORMATION, AND EVERYONE RESPONDS TO THAT INFORMATION SIMILARLY. THUS THERE IS NO EDGE, NO RELATIVE ADVANTAGE, NO REASON TO KEEP BUYING THE PRODUCT.

      这对于我们来说并不容易。ORBITAL INSIGHT和URSA SPACE通过地理空间数据构建了相似的全球石油监测模型。

      AFTER CORN, THE PLAN WAS TO COVER MAJOR CROPS IN THE U.S. AND THEN LOOK AT OTHER MAJOR CROPS GLOBALLY: CANOLA IN CANADA, WHEAT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, AND SOY IN SOUTH AMERICA. THEN WE’D START BUILDING FORECASTS FOR OTHER MAJOR COMMODITIES, AND WE’D HAVE A NEW KIND OF INFORMATION COMPANY. AT THIS PHASE, WE TALKED ABOUT BEING “USDA FOR THE WORLD” OR “AN AI BLOOMBERG TERMINAL.”

      在玉米之后,我们计划将产量预测服务覆盖到美国的主要作物,然后是全球的其他主要作物:加拿大的油菜籽、黑海地区的小麦和南美洲的大豆。但如果每个人都知道了这些数字,你就必须与大量参与者共享战利品。我们对美国玉米产量的预测不仅非常准确,而且还更新很快。因为无论你是为作物投保,购买玉米糖浆还是交易期货,玉米的供应量都是一个重要的考量因素。最近被INDIGO AGRICULTURE收购的一家公司TELLUS LABS,在生长季时每天发布玉米和大豆的产量预测,因此农民可以更好地规划生产,消费者可以更好地预测价格。令人鼓舞的是,为了追踪和防止非法采伐,我们将能够确切了解亚马逊地区已砍伐树木的数量,而不是像以前那样只能粗略估计。我们每四天发布一次数据,美国农业部每个月才发布一次数据,显然我们的产品提供了明显的优势。对此类商品交易的复杂性有所了解之后选择放弃,这是一个正确的决定。但我也相信他们的优势是有限的。在一个竞争激烈的市场中尝试创建通用的数据产品面临的一个问题是:每个人都可以访问到同样的信息,每个人响应这些信息的方式也都是类似的。这就是为什么每家公司都需要自己的数据精炼工厂。

      FOR ALL THESE REASONS, DESCARTES LABS STOPPED PURSUING A ROLE AS AN AI BLOOMBERG TERMINAL AND FOCUSED INSTEAD ON BUILDING OUT OUR DATA REFINERY. WE REALIZED THAT THE SAME DATA, MODELING TOOLS, AND CLOUD-BASED SUPERCOMPUTER THAT WE BUILT TO CREATE THE CORN MODEL COULD BE USED TO BUILD BESPOKE MODELS FOR CUSTOMERS. WE THINK OF OUR DATA REFINERY AS A PIECE OF ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE, WHICH WILL REQUIRE BEING CUSTOMIZED WITH OUR CUSTOMERS’S PROPRIETARY KNOWLEDGE AND DATA. YOU DON’T INSTALL ORACLE FINANCE OUT OF THE BOX, CHANGING YOUR ORGANIZATION TO MATCH ORACLE’S SOFTWARE; YOU CUSTOMIZE ORACLE FINANCE SO THAT IT SUPPORTS AND DIGITIZES YOUR INTERNAL PROCESSES. THE SAME THING IS TRUE FOR CREATING INSIGHTS ON DATA: COMBINING EXTERNAL DATA WITH A COMPANY’S PROPRIETARY DATA AND KNOWLEDGE WILL ENABLE A FAR BETTER MODEL.

      出于以上的这些原因,DESCARTES LABS不再追求成为BLOOMBERG AI终端这样的角色,而是专注于构建我们的数据精炼工厂。准确查明正在出现粮食短缺的地区,更快地进行人道主义援助,并将其送到最需要的地区,这样的愿景想想就让人兴奋。

      。在构建了一些航运相关的人工智能模型之后,他们筹集了一个对冲基金,创建了一个创业/交易的混合体。(专业的事情交给专业人士来做)

      INSTEAD, WE DECIDED TO SELL THE CORN NUMBER TO LOTS OF CUSTOMERS AS A DATA PRODUCT. WE FIGURED THAT EVERYONE IN THE CORN VALUE CHAIN WOULD WANT TO SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FORECAST BECAUSE, WHETHER YOU’RE INSURING THE CROPS, BUYING CORN SYRUP, OR TRADING FUTURES, THE SUPPLY OF CORN IS A CRITICAL PIECE OF KNOWLEDGE. OUR FORECAST FOR THE US WAS NOT ONLY VERY ACCURATE, IT WAS ALSO PUBLISHED EVERY FOUR DAYS. THE USDA ONLY RELEASED A MONTHLY FORECAST. WE OFFERED A CLEAR ADVANTAGE.

      我们决定将玉米产量的预测值作为数据产品出售给许多客户。

      THOUGH WE CONSIDERED TAKING A SIMILAR TACK, WE ULTIMATELY REASONED THAT EVEN IF WE UNDERSTOOD CORN SUPPLY, WE KNEW NOTHING ABOUT DEMAND, CURRENCY, MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, POLITICS, OR ANY ONE OF THE HUNDREDS OF FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE PRICE OF CORN. KNOWING WHAT I KNOW NOW ABOUT THE COMPLEXITY OF COMMODITIES TRADING, IT WAS THE RIGHT DECISION.

      虽然我们考虑过采取类似的措施,但最终我们认为,即使我们了解了玉米的供应量,我们也不了解市场需求、货币、宏观经济波动、政治或者影响玉米价格的数百个因素中的任何一个。由于信息的价值随着客户数量的增加而减少,因此存在着一个最大值。

      THERE’S VALUE FOR EVERYONE HAVING ACCESS TO THE SAME DATA, BUT SMART COMPANIES ARE GOING TO LOOK FOR A SUSTAINABLE DATA ADVANTAGE. INSIGHT SHOULD NOT BE OUTSOURCED; IT SHOULD BE A CORE FUNCTION OF EVERY COMPANY. THAT’S WHY EVERY COMPANY WILL NEED A DATA REFINERY.

      和其他人一样获取相同的数据当然是有价值的,但是聪明的公司应该寻求可持续的数据优势。

      COMPANIES LIKE DESCARTES LABS ARE TRYING TO BUILD A BUSINESS BY REFINING RAW DATA FROM SENSORS, AND APPLYING AI TO TURN THE DATA INTO INSIGHTS ABOUT THE WORLD. OUR CUSTOMERS BENEFIT BECAUSE THEY BETTER UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THEY OPERATE. THE QUESTION FOR US STARTUPS IS: HOW DO WE SERVE THOSE CUSTOMERS AND BUILD A BUSINESS AROUND DATA?

      像DESCARTES LABS这样的公司正在尝试处理来自传感器的原始数据,并在其上应用人工智能模型以便从数据中获取对世界的洞察和了解。

      THERE ARE MANY COMPANIES THAT BUILD DATA PRODUCTS. BOTH ORBITAL INSIGHT AND URSA SPACE HAVE GLOBAL OIL MONITORING PRODUCTS, DERIVED FROM GEOSPATIAL DATA. THE IDEA IS TO PROVIDE MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION TO CUSTOMERS IN THE OIL AND GAS SUPPLY CHAIN, WHO ARE GRANTED ACCESS TO DAILY FORECASTS OF REFINING ACTIVITY OR STORAGE CAPACITY. ANOTHER COMPANY, TELLUS LABS, RECENTLY ACQUIRED BY INDIGO AGRICULTURE, RELEASES DAILY CORN AND SOY FORECASTS DURING THE GROWING SEASON SO FARMERS CAN PLAN BETTER AND CONSUMERS CAN PREDICT PRICES.

      有许多公司选择了构建数据产品。这类产品的目的是为石油和天然气供应链中的客户提供更加准确的预测信息,这些客户可以获得炼油活动或存储容量的每日预测。从数据中获取洞见也是如此:将外部数据与公司的专有数据和领域知识结合之后,可以得到更好的模型。洞察力不应该外包,而应该成为公司的核心功能。

      THIS IS THE PROBLEM WITH SELLING DATA SUBSCRIPTIONS: THE VALUE OF THE INFORMATION ERODES THE MORE PEOPLE KNOW IT. IF YOU KNEW TOMORROW’S LOTTERY NUMBERS, YOU COULD BUY A TICKET, MAKE YOUR PICKS, AND WIN IT ALL. BUT IF EVERYONE KNEW THE NUMBERS, YOU’D HAVE TO SHARE THE SPOILS WITH A HUGE POOL OF PLAYERS. OUR CHOICE AT DESCARTES LABS WAS TO EITHER SELL OUR CORN FORECAST TO A SINGLE CLIENT FOR A LOT OF MONEY, OR SELL TO MANY CLIENTS FOR MUCH LESS. SINCE THE VALUE OF THE INFORMATION DECREASES WITH EVERY ADDITIONAL CLIENT, THERE’S A MAXIMUM TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET.

      这就是销售数据产品的问题所在:知道的人越多,信息的价值也就越被侵蚀。但创业公司面临的问题是,成为早期破坏者和成为市场标准之间存在着巨大的差距。

      OF COURSE, I’M GLAD THERE ARE DATA PRODUCTS COMPANIES. THE ORBITAL INSIGHTS AND GENSCAPES ARE AN IMPORTANT PART OF SHARING KNOWLEDGE WITH THE GENERAL MARKET. BUT I ALSO BELIEVE THAT THEIR UPSIDE IS LIMITED.

      当然,我很高兴目前还存在着数据产品公司。像ORBITAL INSIGHTS和GENSCAPES这样的公司为一般市场分享知识提供了重要的支持。我们在DESCARTES LABS所面临的选择是:要么以较高的价格将信息出售给单个客户,要么以较低的价格出售给许多客户。市场为什么要信任你(一个创业公司)呢?

      ANOTHER PERNICIOUS DETAIL IS THE FACT变频器维修 THAT ALL INFORMATION TENDS TOWARD BEING KNOWN BY THE MARKET, A PROCESS THAT’S SPED UP BY THE INTERNET. THAT MEANS THE ADVANTAGE OF GETTING DATA AHEAD OF A COMPETITOR IS TEMPORARY. NO LONGER DOES ANYONE HAVE TO WAIT FOR A COPY OF THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TO SEE HOW PROCTOR AND GAMBLE IS DOING ON THE NYSE; WE CAN ALL SEE THE PRICE IN REAL TIME, JUST LIKE A TRADER.

      另外一个不利(于数据订阅模式)的细节是,所有的信息最终都会被市场所获知,而且这一过程正在被互联网所加速。我们将数据精炼工厂视为企业软件的一部分,它可以根据客户的领域知识和数据进行定制化。但对于我们这样的初创公司来说,问题是,我们应该如何围绕数据建立业务,为客户提供服务呢?

      THERE SEEM TO BE TWO DISTINCT OPTIONS EMERGING: EITHER BUILD A SERIES OF DATA PRODUCTS AVAILABLE TO ALL, OR CREATE A PLATFORM TO BUILD BESPOKE PRODUCTS, UNIQUE TO EACH CUSTOMER.

      似乎有两种不同的选择:要么建立一系列可供所有人使用的产品,要么创建一个平台为每个客户定制独有的产品。

      ONE ARGUMENT IN FAVOR OF SELLING DATA SUBSCRIPTIONS IS THAT, IF YOU’RE ABLE TO BECOME THE GOLD STANDARD, T伟肯变频器HEN YOU ARE… WELL, GOLDEN. AFTER ALL, EVERYONE NEEDS TO SUBSCRIBE TO SIGNALS THAT MOVE THE MARKET, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOU THINK THEY’RE RIGHT OR NOT. SINCE EVERYONE HAS THE DATA, CUSTOMERS AREN’T WILLING TO PAY A LOT, BUT AT LEAST EVERYONE IS REQUIRED TO KNOW WHAT THE INFORMATION IS. THE PROBLEM FOR A STARTUP IS THAT THERE IS A HUGE CHASM BETWEEN BEING AN EARLY DISRUPTER AND A MARKET STANDARD. WHY SHOULD THE MARKET TRUST YOU?

      支持销售数据产品的一个论点是,如果你能够成为黄金标准的话,那么你就是......好吧,市场标准。我们的客户将因此受益,因为他们能够更好地了解他们的运营环境。SELLING DATA PRODUCTS IS THE WRONG BUSINESS MODEL FOR AI STARTUPS

      图1

      SATELLITES AND OTHER EARTH DATA SOURCES CAN HELP US BETTER UNDERSTAND THE PLANET. IT’S ENCOURAGING TO THINK THAT IN AN EFFORT TO TRACK AND PREVENT ILLEGAL LOGGING, WE’LL BE ABLE TO KNOW, RATHER THAN ESTIMATE, EXACTLY HOW MANY TREES HAVE BEEN CUT DOWN IN THE台达变频器 AMAZON. IT’S EXCITING TO ENVISION THE CAPACITY TO ACCURATELY PINPOINT REGIONS EXPERIENCING FOOD SHORTAGES, SO WE CAN SEND IN HUMANITARIAN AID FASTER AND WHERE IT’S NEEDED MOST.

      卫星数据和其他的相关数据源可以帮助我们更好地了解地球。由于每个人都有相同的数据,客户不会愿意为此付出很多,但至少每个人都需要知道信息是什么(销售数据产品的模式也就得以存活)。在这个阶段,我们谈到了成为“世界的美国农业部”或“BLOOMBERG AI终端”。

      AT FIRST, INVESTORS KEPT ASKING US WHY WE DIDN’T TRADE THE NUMBER OURSELVES IF IT WAS SO GOOD. THAT’S WHAT CARGOMETRICS DID. AFTER THEY BUILT SOME AI AROUND SHIPPING, THEY RAISED A HEDGE FUND TO CREATE A STARTUP/TRADING HYBRID.

      起初,投资者一直在问我们一个问题,既然我们做的这么好,为什么我们自己不使用这个预测参与到交易当中,而这正是CARGOMETRICS所做的事情

    20190422082403

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