新闻资讯

当前位置:首页 > 新闻中心 > 公司新闻

    GIVEN THE HEIGHTENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS REGARDING SINGLE-USE PLASTICS

    来源:www.dfsbp.com    发布于:2019-4-21 9:10:32    点击量:

    2019/04/22 08/24/03  【丹佛斯变频器 www.dfsbp.com】

      A BAN ON SINGLE-USE PLASTICS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ENERGY DEMAND AND CARBON EMISSIONS WITHOUT FURTHER ADVANCES IN ALTERNATIVE MATERIALS AND THE WIDESPREAD USE OF COLLECTION AND REUSE SYSTEMS.

      。

      A KEY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE A NEAR-COMPLETE DECARBONIZATION OF THE POWER SECTOR – REQUIRING GREATER USE OF RENEWABLES AND CCUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NATURAL GAS – TOGETHER WITH GREATER ELECTRIFICATION OF END-USE ACTIVITIES (INCLUDING TRANSPORT).

      对于那些无法实现电气化的终端用途而言,其他形式的低碳能源和能源载体(可能包括氢和生物能)则至关重要。

      85% OF THE GROWTH IN ENERGY SUPPLY IS GENERATED THROUGH RENEWABLE ENERGY AND NATURALGAS, WITH RENEWABLES BECOMING THE LARGEST SOURCE OF GLOBAL POWER GENERATION BY2040.

      可再生能源是史上最快渗透至全球能源体系的燃料。

      IN ORDER TO REDUCE THAT NUMBER TO ONE-THIRD OF THE POPULATION BY 2040, THE WORLD WOULD REQUIRE AROUND 65% MORE ENERGY THAN TODAY, OR 25% MORE ENERGY THAN NEEDED IN THE EVOLVING TRANSITION SCENARIO.

      在“渐进转型”情景中,所需能源的增长量大致相当于2017年中国的整体能源消费量。联合国人类发展指数指出,在100吉焦水平以下,人均能源消费与人类发展有很强的相关性。

      GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO RISE, SIGNALLING THE NEED FOR A COMPREHENSIVE SETOF POLICY MEASURES TO ACHIEVE A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN CARBONEMISSIONS.

      BP集团首席执行官戴德立表示:“《展望》再次聚焦了世界能源体系的变化速度,以及将来我们该如何面对能源需求增加和碳排放减少的双重挑战。

      THE PACE AT WHICH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATES THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM IS FASTER THAN FOR ANY FUEL INHISTORY.

      在《展望》期的前半段时间内,石油需求有所增长,随后逐渐趋于平稳;而全球煤炭消耗量则大体持平。

      THE WORLD OF ENERGY IS CHANGING. RENEWABLES AND NATURAL GAS TOGETHER ACCOUNT FOR THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE GROWTH IN PRIMARY ENERGY. IN OUR EVOLVING TRANSITION SCENARIO, 85% OF NEW ENERGY IS LOWER CARBON.

      除了“渐进转型”情景外,《展望》还考虑了若干其他情景,对几个重要情景进行了概述。

      THESE SCENARIOS HIGHLIGHT THE DUAL CHALLENGE THAT THE WORLD IS FACING. THE OUTLOOK ALSO CONSIDERS A NUMBER OF OTHER ISSUES INCLUDING THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF AN ESCALATION IN TRADE DISPUTES AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT TIGHTENING IN THE REGULATION OF PLASTICS.

      《展望》中的大部分内容都是以“渐进转型”情景为基础。

      THIS YEAR’S OUTLOOK CONSIDERS WHICH TECHNOLOGIES AND DEVELOPMENTS MAY PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE IN THIS REDUCTION BEYOND 2040.

      其中,一个关键技术发展可能就是电力行业的几乎完全脱碳。“更多能源”情景将对这一点进行探讨。因此,世界各国能否继续寻求减少电力行业排放量的方法至关重要。

      MORE ENERGY WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT GROWTH AND ENABLE BILLIONS OF PEOPLE TO MOVE FROM LOW TO MIDDLE INCOMES; THIS IS EXPLORED IN THE MORE ENERGY SCENARIO.

      人类进步和能源消耗之间存在密切联系。

      ACROSS ALL THE SCENARIOS CONSIDERED IN THE OUTLOOK, SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF CONTINUED INVESTMENT IN NEW OIL WILL BE REQUIRED TO MEET OIL DEMAND IN2040.

      全球碳排放持续增加,这表明需要出台全面的政策措施来实现碳排放的大幅削减。

      FOR THOSE END-USES THAT CANNOT BE ELECTRIFIED, OTHER FORMS OF LOW-CARBON ENERGY AND ENERGY CARRIERS WILL BE CRUCIAL, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING HYDROGEN AND BIOENERGY.

      逆全球化

      LESSGLOBALIZATION

      国际贸易促进了经济增长,实现了各国能源多元化。据此,我们可以这样假设,将来20年塑料制品的使用和回收监管法规将会大幅收紧。在该情景中:

      INTHE'EVOLVINGTRANSITION'SCENARIO,WHICHASSUMESTHATGOVERNMENTPOLICIES,TECHNOLOGIESANDSOCIETALPREFERENCESEVOLVEINAMANNERANDSPEEDSIMILARTOTHERECENTPAST:

      生活水平不断提高,尤其是在印度、中国和其他亚洲地区生活水平提高的推动下,到2040年,全球能源需求增长约三分之一。能源世界正在发生变化,我们今天推出《BP世界能源展望》2019年中文版,在“渐进转型”中聚焦世界能源体系变化速度。

      THISFALLREFLECTSACOMBINATIONOF:GAINSINENERGYEFFICIENCY;ASWITCHTOLOWER-CARBONFUELS;MATERIALUSEOFCCUS;AND,OFPARTICULARIMPORTANCEINTHEPOWERSECTOR,ASIGNIFICANTRISEINTHECARBONPRICE.

      目前,电力行业是能源使用方面最大的碳排放源。

      MUCH OF THE NARRATIVE IN THE OUTLOOK IS BASED ON ITS EVOLVI变频器维修NG TRANSITION SCENARIO.

      这种情景和《展望》中考虑的其他情景并不是为了去预测将来可能发生什么,而是为了探索外界判断和假设可能带来的影响。

      GIVEN THE HEIGHTENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS REGARDING SINGLE-USE PLASTICS, THE OUTLOOK ALSO CONSIDERS A SINGLE-USE PLASTICS BAN SCENARIO, IN WHICH THE REGULATION OF PLASTICS IS TIGHTENED EVEN MORE QUICKLY, CULMINATING IN A WORLDWIDE BAN ON THE USE OF ALL SINGLE-USE PLASTICS FROM 2040 ONWARDS.

      如果不进一步开发替代材料以及不广泛应用回收再利用系统,一次性塑料制品禁令可能会导致能源需求和碳排放的增加。

      THE INCREASE IN ENERGY REQUIRED OVER AND ABOVE THE EVOLVING TRANSITION SCENARIO IS ROUGHLY THE EQUIVALENT OF CHINA’S ENTIRE ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN 2017.

      除更多能源情景外,《展望》还强调采取进一步措施减少碳排放的需求。

      DOING SO RESULTS IN AROUND A 45% DECLINE IN CARBON EMISSIONS BY 2040 RELATIVE TO CURRENT LEVELS – WHICH IS BROADLY IN THE MIDDLE OF A SAMPLE OF EXTERNAL PROJECTIONS WITH CLAIM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH MEETING THE PARIS CLIMATE G变频器维修OALS.

      碳排放减少反映了一系列的变化:能源效率的提高、向低碳能源结构的转型、碳捕捉利用与储存技术的大幅运用,以及对电力行业尤为重要的——碳价格的大幅上涨。

      TOGETHER WITH THE MORE ENERGY SCENARIO, THE OUTLOOK ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE NEED FOR FURTHER ACTION TO REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS. THIS IS THE DUAL CHALLENGE FOR THE WORLD – TO PROVIDE MORE ENERGY WITH FEWER EMISSIONS.

      快速转型

      RAPIDTRANSITION

      “快速转型”情景将《展望》内的所有分析组合在一起,它将关于工业、建筑、交通和电力低碳情景的政策措施组合在一个情景中。

      BEYOND THE EVOLVING TRANSITION SCENARIO, THE OUTLOOK CONSIDERS A NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS. SOME OF THE KEY ONES ARE OUTLINED BELOW.

      更多能源

      MOREENERGY

      我们需要更多的能源来支持增长和将近数十亿低收入人群转变为中等收入。可再生能源和天然气贡献了一次能源增长的绝大部分。

      EVEN IN THE RAPID TRANSITION SCENARIO, A SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF CARBON EMISSIONS REMAIN IN 2040.

      为实现《巴黎协定》气候目标,需要在本世纪下半叶大大减少剩余排放量,并以负排放将其抵消。

      IN ORDER TO MEET THE PARIS CLIMATE GOALS, IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE CENTURY THESE REMAINING EMISSIONS WOULD NEED TO BE GREATLY REDUCED AND OFFSET WITH NEGATIVE EMISSIONS变频器维修

      今年的《展望》就讨论了在2040年以后,哪些技术和发展趋势可以在减少排放量方面发挥核心作用。

      INTERNATIONAL TRADE UNDERPINS ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ALLOWS COUNTRIES TO DIVERSIFY THEIR SOURCE OF ENERGY. IN THE LESS GLOBALIZATION SCENARIO THE OUTLOOK EXPLORES THE POSSIBLE IMPACT THAT ESCALATING TRADE DISPUTES COULD HAVE ON THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM.

      戴思攀表示,“历史经验告诉我们,对能源安全的担忧会产生持久的疤痕效应。

      THE POWER SECTOR USES AROUND 75% OF THE INCREASE IN PRIMARYENERGY.

      85%的能源供给增长来自可再生能源和天然气。在“全球化程度降低”情景中,《展望》探讨了贸易纠纷升级对世界能源体系产生的可能影响。

      DEMAND FOR OIL GROWS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY PLATEAUING,WHILE GLOBAL COAL CONSUMPTION REMAINS BROADLY FLAT.

      在所有《展望》考虑的情景中,为满足2040年的石油需求,需要加大对新油田的投资力度。

      THE 2019 CHINESE EDITION OF BP’S ENERGY OUTLOOK, EXPLORES THE KEY UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD IMPACT THE SHAPE OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS OUT TO 2040.

      而这一时期最大的不确定性在于:全球经济的持续增长和繁荣需要消费更多能源,同时,我们也需要更快地向低碳社会转型。该情景假设对塑料制品的监管快速收紧,从2040年开始世界各国都将禁止使用所有变频器维修一次性塑料制品。

      “THE OUTLOOK AGAIN BRINGS INTO SHARP FOCUS JUST HOW FAST THE WORLD’S ENERGY SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING, AND HOW THE DUAL CHALLENGE OF MORE ENERGY WITH FEWER EMISSIONS IS FRAMING THE FUTURE. MEETING THIS CHALLENGE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE MANY FORMS OF ENERGY TO PLAY A ROLE.” SAID BOB DUDLEY, GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE.

      BP集团首席经济学家戴思攀提出:“预测能源转型的演变方向将是一项艰巨而复杂的任务。”

      “THE MESSAGE FROM HISTORY IS THAT CONCERNS ABOUT ENERGY SECURITY CAN HAVE PERSISTENT, SCARRING EFFECTS,” SAID DALE.

      一次性塑料制品禁令

      SINGLE-USEPLASTICSBAN

      GROWTH OF NON-COMBUSTED DEMAND IN THE EVOLVING TRANSITION SCENARIO IS, HOWEVER, SLOWER THAN IN THE PAST, REFLECTING THE ASSUMPTION THAT REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE USE AND RECYCLING OF PLASTICS TIGHTEN MATERIALLY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS.

      鉴于一次性塑料制品对环境影响问题的日益严重,《展望》还考虑了“一次性塑料制品禁令”情景。

      THE RAPID TRANSITION SCENARIO IS THE COMBINATION OF ANALYSES THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK WHICH BRINGS TOGETHER IN A SINGLE SCENARIO THE POLICY MEASURES IN SEPARATE LOWER CARBON SCENARIOS FOR INDUSTRY AND BUILDINGS, TRANSPORT AND POWER.

      “快速转型”情景的结论是,到2040年,碳排放会比目前减少45%左右——这大致和《巴黎协定》气候目标外部预测样本的中等水平相符合。这一技术发展需要大量使用可再生能源和天然气,并通过碳捕捉利用与储存技术技术,同时提高终端用途(包括交通)的电气化程度。

      THE SINGLE-LARGEST PROJECTED SOURCE OF OIL DEMAND GROWTH OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS IS FROM THE NON- COMBUSTED USE OF LIQUID FUELS IN INDUSTRY, PARTICULARLY AS A FEEDSTOCK FOR PETROCHEMICALS, DRIVEN BY THE INCREASING PRODUCTION OF PLASTICS.

      然而,“渐进转型”情景显示,用于非燃烧需求的石油增幅却比过去有所放缓。《展望》也探讨了其他一系列问题,包括贸易摩擦升级以及一次性塑料制品使用禁令所产生的潜在影响。”

      “PREDICTING HOW THIS ENERGY TRANSITION WILL EVOLVE IS A VAST, COMPLEX CHALLENGE. IN BP, WE KNOW THE OUTCOME THAT’S NEEDED, BUT WE DON’T KNOW THE EXACT PATH THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE. OUR STRATEGY OFFERS US THE FLEXIBILITY AND AGILITY WE NEED TO MEET THIS UNCERTAINTY HEAD ON.” AGREES SPENCER DALE, GROUP CHIEF ECONOMIST.

      能源世界正在发生变化。

      THERE IS A STRONG LINK BETWEEN HUMAN PROGRESS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION; THE UN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX SUGGESTS THAT INCREASES IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF UP TO AROUND 100 GIGAJOULES (GJ) PER HEAD ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND WELL-BEING.

      目前,全世界约80%的人口居住在人均能源消耗低于100吉焦的国家/地区。可以肯定的是,在面对这些挑战时,我们必然需要多种形式的能源共同发挥作用。

      GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND INCREASES BY AROUND A THIRD BY 2040, DRIVEN BY IMPROVEMENTS INLIVING STANDARDS, PARTICULARLY IN INDIA, CHINA AND ACROSS ASIA.

      工业耗能和建筑耗能占整体能源需求增长的75%左右,交通能源需求的增长与过去相比则因机动车效率的提升而明显放缓。

      TODAY, AROUND 80% OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION LIVE IN COUNTRIES WHERE AVERAGE ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS LESS THAN 100 GJ PER HEAD.

      为了在2040年之前将这一比例降至三分之一,世界能源需求将比今天多出约65%左右,比“渐进转型”情景所需能源多25%。

      THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTIES OVER THIS PERIOD INVOLVE THE NEED FOR MORE ENERGY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND RISING PROSPERITY, TOGETHER WITH THE NEED FOR A MORE RAPID TRANSITION TO A LOWER-CARBON FUTURE.

      这些情景都强调了一个问题——世界面临着双重挑战。到2040年,可再生能源将成为全球最大的发电用能源。我们的战略为我们提供了正面应对这一不确定性所需的灵活性和便捷性。

      REDUCTIONS IN CARBON EMISSIONS FROM THE TRANSPORT INDUSTRY IN ALL SCENARIOS TO 2040 IS RELATIVELY SMALL IN COMPARISON.

      即使是在“快速转型”情景中,2040年的碳排放水平仍然会居高不下。

      THIS SCENARIO AND THE OTHERS CONSIDERED IN THE OUTLOOK ARE NOT PREDICTIONS OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN; INSTEAD, THEY EXPLORE THE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT JUDGEMENTS AND ASSUMPTIONS.

      ENERGY CONSUMED BY INDUSTRY AND BUILDINGS ACCOUNTS FOR AROUND 75% OF THIS INCREASE IN OVERALL ENERGY DEMAND, WHILE GROWTH IN ENERGY DEMAND FROM TRANSPORT SLOWS SHARPLYRELATIVE TO THE PAST AS GAINS IN VEHICLE EFFICIENCYACCELERATE.

      电力行业能源消费约占一次能源增长量的75%。

      请看详细报道↓↓↓

      《BP世界能源展望》2019年中文版(以下简称“《展望》”)对2040年前可能影响全球能源市场状况的关键不确定因素展开了探讨。在BP,我们清楚我们期望的结果,但是,我们并不知道转型的确切路径。在“渐进转型”情景中,85%的增加能源消费都来自低碳能源。

      THE POWER SECTOR IS CURRENTLY THE SINGLE LARGEST SOURCE OF CARBON EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY USE AND IT IS THEREFORE CRITICAL THAT THE WORLD CONTINUES TO SEEK WAYS TO REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM THIS SECTOR.

      相比之下,2040年前所有情景中交通业的碳排放减少量较少

    20190422082403

相关阅读


版权所有: 上海丹佛斯变频器一级代理商 服务热线:13917851195 版权所有